Energy Predictions for 2026: What It Means for Australia & NZ

Energy forecasts don’t usually make for light reading. But a recent US report, 2026 Energy Predictions: Actionable insights to build energy resilience, cuts through with a clear message: the global energy transition is entering a more pragmatic phase.

As energy systems face increasing disruption from climate impacts, infrastructure pressure and market volatility, the defining issue heading into 2026 is no longer just decarbonisation — it’s energy resilience.

Key Findings From a US Energy Resilience Report

The US report highlights that 2025 exposed critical vulnerabilities across energy systems. Political uncertainty, physical climate risks and ageing infrastructure have challenged long-standing assumptions about reliability and predictability.

In response, energy strategies are shifting away from “net zero at all costs” and toward approaches that prioritise system resilience, operational reliability and long-term value. Resilience is no longer framed as a backup plan — it is becoming a core principle of energy planning.

Why Traditional Energy Planning Models Are Changing

One of the report’s strongest themes is the decline of traditional planning approaches designed for stable markets.

Energy demand is harder to forecast. Extreme weather events are more frequent. Infrastructure is under growing strain. As a result, energy leaders are focusing less on long-range targets alone and more on day-to-day system performance under pressure.

In this context, success is increasingly measured by how energy systems respond to disruption — not just how ambitious the transition pathway looks on paper.

The Role of Technology in Building Energy Resilience

Technology features in the report as a practical enabler rather than a silver bullet.

Improved data, smarter forecasting and better system visibility are helping organisations anticipate risk earlier and respond faster when conditions change. The emphasis is on decision support, not innovation for its own sake — particularly in environments where reliability is critical.

What This Means for Australia and New Zealand’s Energy Future

While the report focuses on the United States, many of its findings are highly relevant to Australia and New Zealand.

Across Australasia, energy systems are becoming more decentralised while simultaneously facing increased exposure to extreme weather, infrastructure transition and demand growth. These pressures mirror — and in some cases intensify — the challenges outlined in the US report.

Looking ahead to 2026, we expect similar shifts across Australia and New Zealand, with energy resilience continuing to move up the leadership agenda. Energy decisions are likely to be increasingly shaped by business continuity, system reliability and community impact, alongside decarbonisation goals.

A Maturing Energy Transition, Not a Slowing One

This shift does not signal a retreat from the energy transition. Instead, it reflects a more mature phase — one that balances ambition with preparedness.

As 2026 approaches, resilient energy systems are emerging as the foundation that enables long-term progress. For energy leaders in Australia and New Zealand, the question is no longer just where are we heading?
It is how well prepared are our systems for the disruptions along the way?

Source
Verdantix (2025). 2026 Energy Predictions: Actionable insights to build energy resilience